Outlook for Feb 1

Well, I have underestimated the effect of central banks’ liquidity supply to market’s movements. I violated my trading practice by front running the markets. Bad ! Being burnt hard didn’t motivate me to update my blog. Fortunately a planned vacation came up and I used it to clear up my mind. Now I’m back to business and ready to trade again.

In the past few days, despite all the pull backs, SPX (the S&P 500) still looked overbought. It was because buyers have been buying all the dips. However daily MACD is in negative teritory now. For tomorrow, the bears need to show strength to break down the channel’s support then hold there to confirm that the downtrend has just begun.

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Outlook for Jan 19

Are bulls back to business? Tomorrow will reveal. Markets, however, look overbought. I’m holding trapped short position over night.

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Outlook for Jan 18

Everything happened as planned. The S&P 500 opened with gap up but failed to make a higher high, and finally closed lower than opened. I’m holding short position over night.

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Outlook for Jan 17

Jan 12 and Jan 13 happened as I expected in my Outlook for Jan 12. Higher high was created on Jan 12; and pull back happened on Jan 13. US markets are closed on Jan 16. On Jan 17 I expect the pull back to resume. If the S&P 500 could open with gap up, it will create a quadruple top and fail.

I’m holding a pilot short position over the weekend.

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Jan 9 – Jan 13 Summary

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Outlook for Jan 12

The pull back today was a weak one. Bear herd didn’t do any damage and lost steam after the first hour. I feel that another pull back is due soon. But I don’t think it will happen until a higher high is created. I sold all my short in the second trading hour today. Holding no position overnight.

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Outlook for Jan 11

Wow! The bull herd did an amazing job today moving SPX (the S&P 500) surpassing Oct 27 high, 1,292.66. So what next from here? If you read my Outlook for Dec 30, this is the point that trend change would occur. Based on the price actions recently, I don’t think trend change would occur here yet, but a pull back of some kind will have to occur. I’m holding short position overnight.

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Outlook for Jan 10

With caution and resilience, the herd of bulls are marching up to Jan 3 high, 1,284.62. An ascending triangle is forming by the S&P 500 price actions. Normally it will break out. But I’m not fully convinced due to various fundermental problems, so I’m holding both long and short positions overnight.

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Outlook for Jan 9

History repeated itself on Friday. Despite good employment numbers from NFP, the S&P 500 closed in red. From the graph, daily view still does not look bad. Although some warning signs from 15-minute view. On Monday the bulls will need to push the graph higher ideally above Jan 3 high (1,284.62) to gain back confidence for the herd. Otherwise, I think they are done!

I’m holding small short position over the weekend.

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Jan 2 – Jan 6 Summary

I took out $10,000 from my portfolio to buy some nice gifts for my wife and family members . My portfolio value has changed from $51,537.94 to $54,820.59 (+6.37%) [The S&P 500 has changed from 1,257.60 to 1,277.47 (1.58%)]. Executed 3 sell orders all with profits. YTD success rate: 100%.

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